Topping Off the Bins, Predicting Fertilizer Demand

Agronomy
predictions

The ground is covered with snow, the river waters are high, the barges have stopped, harvest is barely done, and fall fertilizer plans came to a standstill. Now what?

Look back at the past 12+ months and then make plans accordingly, suggested Jim Barthel, Federated’s crop nutrient supply manager.

Fall 2018 was wet and winter came early. Spring 2019 was cold, wet, and planting was late; fertilizer was stuck on barges sitting on the lower Mississippi until June and July. Fall 2019 brought more moisture, pushed the harvest later still, and only a small portion of crop nutrients were applied before the ground was covered with snow.

And thus, heading into 2020 the soils are saturated, locks and dams on the Mississippi are undergoing intensive repair after sustaining serious damage in 2019, and growers are buzzing about a significant increase in corn acreages this coming year.

All that translates into demand for fertilizer potentially exceeding supply without proper planning.

“We are buying product now, getting things in place for 2020,” said Barthel, even though the barges are gone until the riverways open again in the spring.

In 2019, “we had to make a lot of creative things happen to keep the supply going,” he said. Federated was able to keep growers supplied with crop nutrients, but not without great effort and expense. “We didn’t see our barges [with prepaid fertilizer] until July last year . . .  after the fact,” he said. Federated hauled in product from Iowa, South Dakota, and terminals even further away.

Federated makes plans based on their growers’ plans. “We are topping off the bins,” said Barthel, bringing in phosphate, potash, and other products to Federated locations, as well as buying product that someone else is storing for Federated (putting “tons in place,” he said).

That process will continue until everything is full. “We can’t rely fully on the river system,” he said. Federated also works with crop nutrient suppliers to ensure grower demand is met.

Federated only knows what demand will be when growers communicate their plans. Those plans help Federated make accurate predictions and keep crop nutrient demand under control; also, prepaid product will get top priority over spring walk-in sales. “Growers who have prepaid have the advantage,” said Barthel.

Talk to your Federated Agronomist about your 2020 crop nutrient needs now. Help yourself – and Federated – be ready for whatever spring delivers.